Don't end up like me

- Make me a promise.

- Sir?

- Don't end up like me.

----

- Don't ever come back here.

You get in there and fight, Carl.

Don't take promises.

Bust their old rules if you have to.

And when it gets hard, and it will,

don't quit on me.

Ever.

<Men of Honor, 2000>

還有時間去探討就選擇開發 打算離場就選擇善用

「我剛搬到一個城市時

會比離開時更常去嘗試新餐廳

離開前我多半光顧我喜歡的餐廳 因為我知道我不久後就要離開紐約

即使找到更好的餐廳

我還是只能去一兩次 那幹嘛冒這個險？」

----

嘗試新事物有令人發省的特質

探索 以及新的喜好 會隨著時間逐漸降低

原因是我們能體會它的機會將越來越少

----

所以如果你還有時間去探討

就選擇開發(explore)

如果你打算離場

就選擇善用(exploit)

採用何種策略完全取決於時間

----

由於策略是取決自時間

所以觀察策略也可以推測出時間

舉個例子

1981年十大賣座電影只有兩部續集

1991年三部 2001年五部

到了2011

十大賣座電影有八部是續集

X戰警將六度拯救世界 玩命關頭六 終極警探五

以電影公司來說

續集好歹已經有固定的觀眾群 是搖錢樹也是有把握的投資

續集電影的氾濫不只令人惋惜 也有點心酸

電影產業進入全然善用的階段

似乎是在宣示它的時代將終結

<決斷的演算, 2017>

I’m not a jerk teen yet. Fleeting moments. Precious memories.

Nate: Dad, you don't need to help me at all. Go on.

Henry: Ok, all right.

Nate: "You blink then I'll be in college"

Henry: What was that?

Nate: Nothing, I just, walking, working.

Henry: ...Ok.

Nate: "Remember that time I was a baby? Feel like one minute ago?"

Henry: What?

Nate: What? Huh?

Henry: Fine?

Nate: "Dad, you’ll be my idol for like, two more years"

Henry: ...OK, I heart that one...

Five minutes, and then we stop.

====

Nate: Mom, we have to replace the chimney with a slide for when the storks delivery my baby brother.

Henry: What he siad.

Sarah: This is crazy! You can not do the chimney.

Come on, don't make me the mean Mom.

Nate: Dads are Fun. Moms are mean.

====

Sarah: We need to tell him.

Henry: Tell him what?

What? Go back to watch more TV?

This is the best time I had with Nate of my life.

Henry: We can get a new chimney. But we would never build or replace the time with Nate.

And if we put those headsets back on, how old will Nate be when we take it off again?

Nate: I’m not a jerk teen yet.

Fleeting moments. Precious memories.

<Storks, 2016>

Look for a new angle

Use that big brain of yours to think your way out.

Look for a new angle.

<Big Hero 6, 2014>

37法則, 秘書問題

37法則

秘書問題secretary problem

- since 1960, Martin Gardber

如果有三人應徵秘書

隨便錄取一人 最佳的機率是1/3

如果我們取決於第二名人選

（只有一人時只有他是最佳

（面試第三人時表示前面都放棄了 只能選他

如果二比一好就錄取

比一差就不錄取

這樣的三人最佳機率近似於二選一

其中「考慮/做決定」的界線接近總人數的37%

這就叫最佳停止(optimal stopping)

「當沒有選擇時就要降低標準 反之 可選擇的人比較多時 就提高標準」

這就叫逆向歸納法(backward induction)

從最後的結果逆向推回 找出臨界值 即是秘書問題

There are eight fish in that big, blue ocean. And if you feel confident that you could reel one into your boat without me, there's the door.

- It's New York City. You knew, plenty of fish in the sea.

- Plenty of fish in the sea?

Yes, there's none million people in New York, 4.5 million women.

Of course, you wanna meet somebody roughly your own age, let's say, plus-minus five years.

So if we take into account the most recent census data, that leaves us with: 482,000.

But, ah, wait, 48% of those are already in relationships, and then you have to eliminate half for intelligence, sense of humor, and compatibility.

And then take out the ex-girlfriends, and the relatives, and oh, we can't forget those lesbians.

And then that leaves us with: eight women.

- That can't be right. Eight?

- There are eight fish in that big, blue ocean. Ted.

And if you feel confident that you could reel one into your boat without me, there's the door.

- You take credit cards?

<How I Met Your Mother, s1ep7, Matchmaker>

那些年我們追的韓劇韓綜 -2022

12月

====

帳篷外面是歐洲 (Since. Oct)

我們的藍調時光

LA@ITZY

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Healing Manual S2, Heal we go Korea #權恩妃

선미의 쇼!터뷰 ep.15 #權恩妃 

三十 九

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